SKIRMISHER

The latest global insight economic outlook index from USA Today seems to indicate that this bleeding diarrhea of an economic recession might be ending, maybe.

The May update of the USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index shows increasing evidence that the recession is likely to end in September, with a mild recovery starting in October.

The decline in real GDP growth accelerated from minus 3.5%, at a six-month annualized growth rate, in December 2008 to minus 6.2% in March. It is expected to slow to minus 4.5% by June, before moderating close to the break-even point in October. Recent gains in the index, though small, have been consistent, which is a good sign.

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